One thing has dogged Xbox above all other things this gen: and that’s flagging Xbox Series X|S hardware sales.
Out of the gate, the Xbox Series X|S sold pretty well, keeping pace with, and even beating the PS5 a couple of times in the United States during Circana sales announcements. Xbox even took the sales crown over the holiday season a couple of times at the start of the gen, but … that initial sprint didn’t last long.
The PlayStation 5 had notorious stock issues initially, but once those were rectified, Xbox Series X|S sales have been firmly on the back foot in the sales race. Furthermore, it has faced near non-stop quarterly declines for at least a couple of years. The last time Xbox reported hardware growth was in fiscal Q3 2023, owing to boosted supplies and pandemic demand.
The Xbox Series X is in stock at Amazon as of writing for $598.99, and the Xbox Series S is in stock for $429.99. However, stocks at global retailers have generally been incredibly patchy, particularly in Europe and Asia. Microsoft also increased the price of the Xbox consoles in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs, making the Xbox Series X almost $100 more expensive than the equivalent PS5.
So, it’s probably no wonder that the Xbox Series X|S has posted non-stop declines for over two years. But a few things are coalescing over the next year that could help stymie the fall. Is Xbox paying attention, or is it too distracted?
Developers are finally abandoning the Xbox One and PS4
Over the past few weeks and even longer, more and more games have begun abandoning past-gen systems.
Xbox One and PS4 consoles have been uncharacteristically sticky compared to last gen. The Xbox One and PS4 x86 architecture means that it has been easier to maintain updates between multiple versions of the same game. The rise of service games, too, has kept players satisfied on previous systems longer than would’ve been the case with the Xbox 360 and PS3 back in the day.
If someone only uses their console to play games like FIFA, Fortnite, Roblox, Minecraft, and so on, which have been well-maintained on previous-gen systems, why would they upgrade?
Well, increasingly, they may soon have no choice.
Major service games like PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds, Genshin Impact, Rust, Hunt: Showdown, and various others have recently announced that their PS4 and Xbox One versions will no longer be supported. PUBG will end support for Xbox One and PS4 on November 13, 2025, for example. Genshin Impact will also end support for the PS4 later this year. Upcoming titles in major franchises like Battlefield 6 have also abandoned past-gen, too, despite previous entries being supported.
More and more major publishers are keen to leave last-gen behind and take advantage of the boosted power in the Xbox Series X|S and PS5/Pro. It might not shift vast amounts of people across until titles like Fortnite, Roblox, and Minecraft drop support, but the trend is pretty straightforward.
But, does Microsoft even have the stock or marketing to take advantage of the situation? Increasingly, you can take your content from platform to platform. If Epic Games did drop support for the Xbox One version, there’s nothing in place to stop players moving from Xbox One to PS5, if there’s no stock available of a corresponding Xbox Series X|S system.
Microsoft has done very little to make the Xbox Series X|S attractive in recent years. Price increases, non-existent marketing, and now, a self-imposed lack of exclusive games make the Xbox Series X|S a hard sell. Even the Xbox Series S is barely cheaper than a PS5 Digital version, while being invariably less powerful.
As more publishers abandon Xbox One and PS4, Microsoft runs the risk of losing more console players to PS5 without a decent strategy in place. There’s another major upcoming event that Microsoft seems ill-prepared for.
GTA 6 is going to be a huge moment in gaming history
Windows PC and platforms like Steam might be the biggest growth vectors for traditional core gaming right now, but there’s one upcoming, very big game that PC isn’t getting — at least initially.
Grand Theft Auto 6 hysteria is already popping off. Rumors abound that GTA 6 could exceed $100 at retail. Some venture capital firms and analysts have some pretty lofty expectations for the game too, expecting it to (somehow) sell 85 million copies in its first two months — with predictions from the likes of Ampere expecting $1 billion in sales on day one.
And of course, Grand Theft Auto 6 won’t be available on Windows PCs from day one, but will most likely arrive later, like Red Dead Redemption 2 and Grand Theft Auto 5 before it. The FOMO will be extreme regardless, especially for the millions of gamers who remain on PS4 and Xbox One consoles.
Indeed, A LOT of people will likely be picking up current-gen consoles for the first time specifically for Grand Theft Auto 6. In previous years, you could have pointed to the Xbox Series S as the “most affordable” way to get GTA 6, but with the price increases, that’s hardly true. For just a little bit extra, you can get a PS5 digital edition that will most likely offer a better visual experience for the game, too.
It’s unknown whether or not GTA 6 will have some sort of marketing tie-in event for specific consoles, but it will most likely be PlayStation. Sony tends to land these kinds of mega console marketing deals, notoriously sniping the Call of Duty marketing deals in years past. Of course, now Microsoft owns Call of Duty — but Xbox has barely leveraged the mega FPS franchise to push its hardware.
It paints a picture of ambivalence to some degree. Microsoft’s gaming business has moved well on from pushing its ecosystem, but by the firm’s own reporting, Xbox Game Pass, which is exclusive to Microsoft platforms, has become a cornerstone of its overall revenue footprint — the majority of those users are, indeed, on Xbox consoles.
Wouldn’t it behoove Microsoft to take advantage of these very rare opportunities to grow its guaranteed hardware ecosystem?
Is Xbox prepared for ANY of this?
Yes, Microsoft is growing its ecosystem beyond Xbox consoles. We have the Xbox Ally on the horizon, which is a Windows PC. Microsoft has been strongly hinting that the next-gen first-party Xbox will also be more Windows PC-like than ever — sporting support for Steam and other PC game stores while also incorporating backward compatibility with the current Xbox console ecosystem. There have also been reports that Microsoft might partner with OEMs to brand more traditional pre-built PCs with Xbox stylings, which is something we can confirm is on the cards, as early as 2026.
There are a considerable number of possibilities that open up with Microsoft’s AMD partnership for PC-Xbox hybrid APUs. It’s no coincidence that the lady running Xbox hardware now came from leading Microsoft’s Windows OEM business, and I’m currently investigating a variety of hardware rumors from OEM Xbox-compatible desktop PCs to even Xbox-capable graphics cards you can build your own “console” PC-hybrids from.
This is all in the future, though. And it’s hardly guaranteed. For the Xbox ecosystem to continue being a viable endpoint for developers, Microsoft needs to remember it still has the Xbox Series X|S on deck for at least a few more years. Stock levels have been incredibly inconsistent, particularly outside of the United States, and Microsoft doesn’t seem particularly well prepared for the impending end-of-life phase of the Xbox One and PS4 lifecycle.
Devices like the Xbox Ally and potential Xbox OEM PC in 2026 are great, but they won’t run Xbox games until the AMD partnership bears fruit, likely in 2027 and beyond. They certainly won’t run GTA 6 in the near term either.
Microsoft has plenty of potential tricks up its sleeve, though. Could we see price cuts towards Black Friday and the 2025 holiday season? Could Microsoft strategize around Call of Duty 2026, abandoning Xbox One and PS4? Could Microsoft land an Xbox Cloud Gaming deal for Grand Theft Auto 6 to grow Xbox’s ecosystem in that direction?
It’s hard to say, but let’s hope Microsoft doesn’t take these rare opportunities for its current-gen Xbox Series X|S consoles granted — a chance to grow the ecosystem is great for devs and customers alike.
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